Chocolate Market 2025: Supply Rebounds, Demand Falls

The chocolate business doesn't act like a basic "buy and resell" category. It's more like chasing after a moving target as prices fluctuate, crop yields vary, and demand increases or decelerates based on region and season. The numbers tell us why wholesalers and buyers still consider chocolate seriously. 

MarkNtel Advisors puts the global market value at roughly USD 130.72 billion in 2024, with expectations of climbing to USD 172.89 billion by 2030, an increase supported by an estimated 4.17% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. 

Another research group, Global Market Insights Inc., shares a similar outlook. Their estimate starts 2024 at around USD 125 billion and follows it with a projected growth rate slightly above 3.3% from 2025 to 2034.

Concurrently, Zion Market Research estimates USD 135.75 billion by 2024 rising to USD 191.48 billion by 2034

The differences aren't an issue, they rather indicate how dynamic the market is. All three reports see stable growth. For industry players such as buyers, wholesalers, and distributors, this means chocolate continues to be a robust category. There's naturally potential for expansion, but also competition. You no longer win by just "keeping chocolate on hand." The wiser move is to select the right segment, the right suppliers, and the right formats.

Market Segmentation

• For this type of product, milk chocolate still holds the largest share. But dark and special chocolates such as single-origin, vegan, organic, and functional are rising rapidly.
• By channel, supermarkets are still the big hitter, but consumers shouldn't ignore the steep rise of e-commerce and specialty channels, particularly for premium SKUs.
• By use, demand is no longer just for consumer bars. There is increasing bulk usage in baking, confectionery production, and coatings.
• With premium buyers, the focus shifts. Hotels, specialty shops, small chocolatiers, they don’t just ask about price. They want to know how the chocolate came to be. Where the cocoa was grown? Who produced it? Whether the batch was small or part of a limited run.
• But if the product is headed for baking lines or co-manufacturing, the priorities shift. Volume. Consistency. Couverture or bulk chocolate becomes the better fit, not because it’s less valuable, but because it works for large-scale production.

Regional Insights

Cacao is not grown anywhere. IIt needs heat, humidity, and a lot of patience. This is the reason that around 70% of the world's cocoa supply comes from West Africa, and most of the beans used in world chocolate production start there.

Top Producers (Cocoa Beans)

• Most of the world’s cocoa beans still come from Côte d'Ivoire, producing roughly 2.37 million tonnes, that’s about 42–45% of global supply. It’s the country that keeps the industry moving.
• Right behind it is Ghana, contributing around 653,700 tonnes a year. Different scale, same level of influence, both countries shape how cocoa flows through the entire market.
• Indonesia has about 641,741 tonnes, thus making Asia an emerging force when it comes to cacao farming.
• Latin America is also on the rise, particularly Ecuador, producing approximately 375,719 tonnes and experts anticipate that it can soon surpass Ghana and emerge as the world's second-largest producer of cocoa.

Largest Importers / Consumers 

• Europe continues to be the heavyweight. Nearly half of the world’s chocolate revenue comes from Europe, about 46%. Not surprising, since places like Germany, France, Switzerland, and the U.K. have long-standing chocolate cultures and established specialty brands.
• North America plays the market differently. It buys in large volumes from outside the region and spends more on limited runs, holiday releases, and premium products. The appetite isn’t occasional, it stays steady all year.
• Meanwhile, the real momentum is shifting toward Asia Pacific. As consumers in China, India, and Southeast Asia gain more spending power, chocolate stops being an occasional treat and starts becoming a regular purchase, that’s where the growth is coming from.

Cocoa prices in 2025 have been anything but consistent. One week the market is quiet, the next it spikes. Buyers experience it in real-time when they place orders or negotiate an agreement.

2025 Cocoa Price Snapshot

• Prices reached record highs in early 2025, around USD 10.75/kg (~USD 10,750 per tonne) at one point.
• Prices eased in mid-2025 but still stayed high around USD 8,401.95 per tonne.
• At the end of 2025, the price corrected again to around USD 6,319 per tonne, still above historical levels.

Even with declining prices, volatility continues. That's why it can damage margins to lock in contracts without knowing forecasts.

Supply Chain Reality Checks

• Global supply of cocoa is expected to rise to ~4.84 million tonnes, with demand slightly declining.
• Chocolate makers are cutting grinding volumes due to pressure on prices, Europe is off 7.2%, Asia off 16% year-on-year.

In addition to price, there are practical threats:

• Weather conditions in leading producing countries can reduce yields.
• Drought in Ivory Coast led to production declines.
• More stringent traceability regulations (particularly in Europe) now introduce paperwork, cost, and compliance burdens.
• Logistics of trade can get complicated with port hold-ups, volatile freight rates, currency fluctuations.
• If you're importing chocolate or beans, your expense is influenced by bean price + logistics + compliance, and not merely the unit price of chocolate.
• If you're distributing, think about diversifying supplier regions. Latin America and Southeast Asia are expanding supply bases and can provide stability.

• Confectioners are readjusting and reducing product sizes due to volatile cocoa prices.
  European and North American companies started modifying recipes and downsizing bar weights to compensate for record cocoa prices. That is not a rumor, a number of manufacturers acknowledged employing smaller bar packages or other cocoa ingredients.
• London and New York cocoa inventories declined to their lowest in more than 25 years.
  That translates to reduced available inventory and additional pressure on the price. Shortage scares, regretfully, are back again.
• Cocoa bean prices hit an all-time high in early 2025, hitting about USD 10.75/kg, the highest price ever. Prices eased later during the year but still maintain elevated levels.
• ICCO (International Cocoa Organization) reported that world demand for cocoa is falling—while supply is rebounding. World cocoa supply for 2024/25 is estimated at ~4.84 million tonnes, up almost 7.8%, while demand is estimated to drop ~4.8%.
• Europe and Asia recorded a fall in cocoa grinding volumes, i.e., manufacturers made less chocolate and cocoa ingredients because of high prices.
  • Europe grinding down –7.2% YoY
  • Asia grinding down –16% YoY
• Ecuador is poised to become the No. 2 global cocoa producer, overtaking Ghana. It's aggressively growing cacao farming, reshaping the world map of supply and offering consumers a choice to West Africa.
• Mid-crop cocoa production in Ivory Coast can fall by about 40% as a result of drought. When the biggest supplier in the world suffers, prices everywhere respond. No surprise.
• More suppliers are turning to blockchain. The EU’s tougher sustainability rules are pushing traders toward digital farm records and full traceability from the field to the shipment.
• Major producers are making increased investment in non-West African processing capacity. Increased bean-to-semi-finished processing is moving to Latin America and Southeast Asia, which could reduce lead times for some buyers.

Knowing what motivates consumer decisions helps you better plan. Retailers and consumers don't merely shift box loads; you set expectations. Seeing what folks actually choose makes sourcing decisions make more sense.

The Rise of Premium and Indulgent Experiences

Individuals currently indulge in chocolate as an indulgence. They desire more intense cocoa profiles, more textural depth, and single-origin bars with a story behind them. Barry Callebaut calls this shift “Intense Indulgence.” It’s the handmade feel that draws consumers in. Small batches and unexpected flavors get attention because they stand out.

Mindful Consumption and Sustainability

People want more than flavor. They check the values behind the product including sourcing, ingredients, and transparency. Ethical practices matter, and so do plant-based options. Barry Callebaut notes that 54% of Millennials and Gen Z in North America expect vegan or plant-based choices on the shelf. Certified Fair-trade or Rainforest Alliance products have a quick trust-building effect, particularly where the narrative is simple on the label or shelf tag.

Health, Functionality and Alternative Formats

Chocolate is moving closer to the better-for-you space. Buyers are choosing darker options, less sugar, or chocolates with added benefits like protein. Barry Callebaut notes that 53% of consumers want chocolate that supports their health goals. As this mindset grows, demand follows, more vegan dark chocolate, more sugar-free bars, and more ingredient-grade chocolate for baking or food service. It’s still indulgence, just with purpose.

Digital and E-Commerce Channels

Chocolate sales are no longer linked to physical aisles. Gift boxes and artisan chocolates sell fast online. As retailers blend physical and digital sales, wholesalers adjust with shipping-friendly formats and faster replenishment. If a product is able to flow between both channels, margins tend to increase.

The chocolate market isn’t moving by chance anymore. It moves with intention. Companies that test new formats, rethink how they source, and actually learn from what the market tells them end up ahead. It’s not about being lucky. It’s about adjusting early and using those lessons to steer the next move.

1. Growth in Demand in Emerging Markets (Expansion of Consumption)

Chocolate is becoming a habit purchase in Latin America and Asia Pacific, not only an indulgence for special occasions. As middle-income families expand, supermarket and convenience store shelves gain more chocolate real estate. Early-entry wholesalers who cultivate relationships with local merchants and understand regional taste conditions tend to capture repeat orders. It's essentially about being there before everyone else realizes the opportunity exists.

2. Premiumisation and Value-Added Differentiation

People don't want generic chocolate; they want a reason to pick your product. Premium formats like limited-origin dark bars or bean-to-bar styles allow retailers to charge more with fewer SKUs. Rather than stacking volume, you curate experience. Where once a customer would return asking for "any chocolate," now they're returning asking for this specific bar-not to be selected by price, but preference.

3. Functional, Plant-Based, and Lifestyle Formats

Chocolate is becoming integrated into daily routines. Less sugar, more high-cocoa, or plant-based alternatives integrate into routines without requiring lifestyle alteration. Vegan dark bars and sugar-free variants create new occasions such as cafés, gyms, bakeries, even corporate gift-giving. These SKUs not only protect market share; they keep your customers from defecting to protein bars or "healthier snacks." Indulgence and justification somehow converge.

4. B2B Ingredient and Co-Manufacturing Opportunities

Retail is not the only game. Chocolate chips, coatings, and couverture for bakeries, ice-cream companies, and snack manufacturers create stable demand year-round. Ingredient supply creates regular volume and commits buyers to long-term relationships since once a product formulation employs your chocolate, it is expensive to switch suppliers. You're no longer "just another supplier." You are now part of their production cycle, and that adheres.

1. TRANSCAO – Côte d'Ivoire

Transcao operates at source with cacao. They deal directly with local farmers and trade cocoa mass, cocoa butter, cocoa powder, and other semi-finished products. They have the advantage of being close to the farms, effectively fewer intermediaries, improved traceability, and fresher beans. They also take sustainability very seriously and actually invest in farm communities, which ensures consistent quality and secure supply.

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2. Cocoa Processing Company Limited (GoldenTree) – Ghana

GoldenTree makes chocolate and cocoa ingredients from Ghana's high-grade beans. Their offerings include bars, spreads, dragees, drinking chocolate, and cocoa inputs for manufacturers. They have strict controls on quality, which maintains flavor profiles steady, something distributors truly value. Because they control both processing and finished goods, lead times are reliable and sourcing feels more fluid for buyers.

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3. PACARI – Ecuador

Pacari uses organic Ecuadorian cacao and emphasizes small-batch processing. Regional flavor varieties are showcased in its chocolates bars, snack formats, and gift lines. Pacari collaborates with farmers who employ direct-trade practices, and therefore payment goes directly to growers. Pacari has a reputation for single-origin authenticity, and somehow each SKU feels "hand-picked." Good choice if you are marketing premium, storytelling-friendly products that command wider margins.

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